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Vincent Gray
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Who will challenge Adrian Fenty for Mayor of the Nation’s Capitol? That’s the $64,000 question. The answer? Nobody. Or at least nobody who can beat him. Adrian Fenty is well on his way to becoming the real Mayor For Life.
First let me say I am aware of Leo Alexander’s campaign. Mr. Alexander doesn’t have a chance. Sad but true. Also sad but true is the realization that there are very few people with the resources and name recognition who could mount a serious challenge and fewer who would.
But the reality of the situation doesn’t stop the press and the political hacks from trying to make a race of it. The vast majority of the political chatter so far surrounds Council Chairman Vincent Gray. Gray would certainly have the best chance given his support from labor unions, at least some of his Council colleagues, and much of the African-American community which has quickly become disenchanted with the homegrown mayor.
But Gray has an enormous problem. He would have to give up his Council chairmanship. Because the 4-year terms for the Mayor and the Chair run concurrently, the only way for an incumbent Chairman to run for Mayor is to give up the Chair. That’s what Linda Cropp did. Does anybody remember Linda Cropp? More than 20 years of public service without a hint of wrongdoing and long list of accomplishments and because she lost her last election she’ll always be remembered as the woman who got crushed by the Fenty juggernaut. A little bit like Charlene Drew Jarvis who Fenty ousted from the Ward 4 council seat not so many years ago.
Trust me, Gray has no desire to end his political career like either of them. But he is clearly enjoying all of the attention, and has himself well positioned should Fenty make some huge blunder between now and next summer. That’s when candidates must file for the September primary. So Gray is doing the politically savvy thing right now, keeping his options open, committing to nothing.
I am reminded somewhat of Kevin Chavous, the former Ward 7 councilmember who Gray ousted. Chavous was playing with the notion of challenging then Mayor Tony Williams for mayor. He was getting asked by reporters everyday if he was going to run. He did the same thing Gray is doing now and in the end he chose not to run, even though he had the luxury of running without jeopardizing his seat.
Not long after he took the easy way out, Mayor Williams found himself kicked off the primary ballot because of fraudulent signatures. Of course there was no way for Chavous to predict the mayor would get kicked off the ballot, but had Chavous challenged Williams, he would have found himself the top Democrat on the ballot that year.
Which reminds me of something WTOP political analyst Mark Plotkin told me about the former Councilmember John Ray who said there’s no downside to running for higher office if you don’t have to give up your council seat. You have nothing to lose and tons of name recognition to gain.
That brings us to the two Browns. Kwame and Michael, both of whom could run without jeopardizing their very safe council seats and both of whom aspire to be more than just a councilmember. By now you may have run across one of the few but mighty “Draft Kwame” yard signs.
K. Brown could be a problem for Fenty, but not the end of him. Not yet. That doesn’t mean Fenty doesn’t see K. Brown as a threat -- he does. On paper the two are much alike -- D.C. natives, D.C. public schools, (Although Kwame can boast of being a D.C. Public School graduate, Fenty can’t. He actually finished high school at a private school.) and both are young and represent change.
And while it doesn’t happen often, draft campaigns can be successful in this town. Just ask Tony Williams who at first vowed not to run, but we all know how that story ended. So the Draft Kwame movement could result in Kwame on the ballot. It can’t hurt that his father is one of the District’s oldest political operatives. And while K. Brown has his weaknesses, campaigning isn’t one of them; it’s actually something he gets better at every day.
As for M. Brown, he’s my odds on favorite to run. He’s one of the only people who would be able to raise enough money. Fenty has sucked the local donors dry, but M. Brown’s reach extends far beyond the Beltway thanks to his national party connections. He’s also run before, against Fenty. So he really has nothing to lose and the more times you run for citywide office, sooner or later you might get lucky.
But there is one more wrinkle in a M. Brown candidacy. He’s an Independent, on paper. Despite the fact that he pledged to switch his party registration back to Democrat once elected as a means to challenge the congressional mandate that two At-Large seats be held by non-democrats, Brown remains an Independent. That means he would have to challenge Fenty in the general election in November, not the September primary.
The question is how would traditionally low voter turnout impact that race? Probably in favor of the Democrat. But it would be interesting to watch.
As for Fenty, he’s already banked nearly $3 million in his campaign war chest; he talks like there is no end in sight, recently telling reporters, “Let’s just assume I will be mayor for the foreseeable future.” As for what happens if there is a serious challenger? I asked the mayor if he would agree to debate any legitimate opponents on the primary or general election ballots. He refused to commit. “We’ll see.” He said.
And of course there is the nuclear option. If all else fails and Fenty has a serious challenger, the mayor can call out the big dog. How long would any candidate last if President Obama walks down MLK Avenue with Fenty or campaigns in Vince Gray’s Ward 7 neighborhood?
The Fenty/Gray situation brings to light a flaw, one of many, in the District’s election laws. The current system basically insulates the incumbent mayor from being challenged by an incumbent Council Chairman. Given that the next logical step from chairman is mayor, the system has a built in glass ceiling for the chairman. Hardly fair.
The Council can and should change the current election cycle for the chairman’s seat. It would require having a one-time 2-year term for the chairman which would put the seat on a different cycle than the mayor’s seat. Then the terms would return to a four-year term.
Gray might want to consider this. If he could make the change in time for the 2010 election, then win re-election as Chair for a two year term, run again in 2012 and win, Gray could position himself to face Fenty in 2014 when Fenty runs for his third term.
It’s a long-term strategy, I know. And of course Gray would need at least 9 votes for a veto proof majority since Fenty is not likely to support such a change, but given that at least 5 of the current councilmembers would like to run for chair, that’s 6 votes without even picking up the phone. |
